***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 38.7 54.6 39.9 122.6 70.2 61.1 20.5 33.3 49.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 58.4 70.5 47.6 155.5 80.1 70.4 28.1 39.8 53.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 61.1 67.9 40.5 132.7 73.6 63.4 28.0 41.4 57.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 64.1 79.8 39.9 145.9 77.5 62.3 22.8 38.1 58.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 34.5 58.0 39.5 147.6 78.0 62.9 17.3 28.2 42.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 43.9 58.7 43.3 129.7 72.7 59.3 24.5 36.7 51.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 54.5 62.5 47.1 144.0 77.2 68.5 26.2 37.2 50.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 84.0 95.1 45.0 139.9 75.7 63.3 44.9 61.6 80.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 45.4 68.8 39.7 137.0 75.0 63.0 25.4 39.2 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 56.7 77.1 47.5 139.9 75.9 63.5 38.9 51.5 65.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 52.7 68.4 40.4 159.8 81.2 65.2 22.6 34.1 48.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 45.3 53.0 36.0 144.8 77.0 62.5 20.4 30.2 41.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 38.0 59.2 37.2 143.3 76.6 60.7 18.9 30.6 45.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 85.5 103.5 57.6 157.3 81.1 71.3 34.6 52.2 73.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 34.1 58.5 34.8 142.9 76.1 61.4 14.6 26.7 42.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 37.5 60.1 38.2 152.4 79.3 61.8 20.7 31.3 44.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 57.0 65.5 48.7 147.1 78.3 68.3 31.4 41.8 53.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 50.6 66.8 52.1 128.8 72.6 61.4 30.6 43.8 58.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 65.3 82.4 48.1 161.3 81.6 71.7 25.1 38.9 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 52.3 64.8 51.4 119.9 68.9 58.4 31.7 45.5 61.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 47.0 66.0 39.1 129.8 72.6 61.7 26.1 40.0 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 60.1 72.5 53.5 163.0 82.4 71.7 31.8 42.4 54.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 62.1 81.5 49.4 165.6 82.7 73.2 19.0 32.5 50.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 76.7 83.9 47.3 136.2 74.8 64.7 39.4 54.4 71.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 40.5 59.2 43.1 125.3 71.1 60.5 19.0 33.0 51.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 35.2 46.8 28.5 122.3 70.0 55.9 17.1 28.1 42.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 49.5 66.6 43.3 121.8 70.0 61.1 29.1 43.6 61.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 34.9 60.1 38.7 151.1 78.7 62.6 16.5 28.1 42.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 65.9 83.0 53.6 124.6 71.0 60.8 42.7 58.3 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 46.8 55.1 44.9 145.1 77.2 67.9 19.3 30.0 42.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------