***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 17.5 18.3 21.2 2.2 89.0 85.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.4 20.1 1.3 74.9 71.6 15.1 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 19.6 20.3 21.0 1.7 83.7 80.1 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 15.2 17.1 19.2 2.6 95.3 91.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 16.3 17.7 19.7 2.3 91.6 88.3 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 14.8 16.8 17.2 2.8 97.5 95.4 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 17.4 18.0 20.5 1.6 80.8 76.9 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 10.9 12.7 17.1 2.4 95.4 92.5 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 17.0 17.4 18.9 1.3 81.3 78.6 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 17.1 18.2 17.5 1.8 90.1 87.1 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 16.8 17.8 19.0 1.8 88.9 86.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 15.0 16.6 18.6 2.6 95.4 92.7 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 16.2 17.8 18.2 2.1 94.7 92.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 17.6 18.2 18.5 1.4 83.7 80.2 15.7 16.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 18.4 20.0 21.2 2.3 93.9 90.7 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 17.9 19.9 19.1 2.5 95.9 93.7 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 17.6 17.8 19.8 1.2 74.0 71.0 15.9 16.6 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 15.5 16.9 17.2 2.3 93.8 90.5 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.0 20.0 1.0 70.0 67.3 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 11.7 13.9 16.0 2.9 97.5 95.2 9.4 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 16.9 17.9 20.5 1.9 89.2 85.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.5 16.7 19.9 1.1 72.6 70.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.8 16.3 19.9 0.8 66.0 64.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 17.4 18.2 18.9 1.7 88.1 84.4 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 17.3 18.4 20.6 2.3 90.2 86.4 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 16.2 18.7 18.0 3.2 98.4 96.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 17.8 19.2 20.9 2.3 90.5 86.5 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 16.2 18.2 20.0 2.7 96.5 93.4 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 14.7 15.8 16.2 2.0 90.5 87.4 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.5 17.9 20.7 1.5 77.8 74.3 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------