***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.7 17.0 20.2 1.5 75.6 69.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.2 19.3 1.0 67.1 61.7 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.8 20.0 1.1 69.3 64.0 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 15.0 15.7 18.2 2.0 84.1 76.4 12.8 13.7 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.4 18.1 1.4 75.0 69.1 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 14.2 15.0 16.4 2.1 89.9 81.9 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.7 19.8 1.3 72.8 66.1 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.7 15.9 1.6 80.6 73.6 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.3 17.7 0.9 67.8 63.7 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.4 16.4 1.3 75.5 69.7 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.0 17.9 1.4 76.4 70.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 13.9 14.3 17.2 1.7 81.5 74.6 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 15.3 15.6 16.6 1.5 80.2 74.2 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.6 17.3 0.8 66.8 62.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 17.4 18.1 20.2 1.9 84.9 78.5 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.2 17.5 1.7 82.7 75.7 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 16.9 17.0 19.2 1.1 70.2 64.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 14.5 15.0 15.7 1.5 78.5 71.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.2 19.2 0.7 62.5 58.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 10.3 11.1 14.2 1.9 85.9 76.8 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.2 19.2 1.2 72.5 67.1 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.8 19.2 1.0 68.3 63.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.4 19.0 0.4 57.3 55.0 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.7 17.5 1.1 71.4 66.0 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.7 19.2 1.6 76.0 69.5 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 15.3 15.8 16.2 1.7 83.0 75.4 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 16.8 17.2 19.6 1.6 75.9 69.1 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 15.3 16.0 18.8 2.0 86.0 78.9 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.5 15.1 1.4 78.9 71.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.7 19.8 1.1 68.8 63.3 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------