***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 15.8 16.3 18.8 0.9 66.5 60.7 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.7 16.2 18.3 0.7 63.8 58.0 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.6 18.8 0.7 63.6 58.3 17.0 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 14.8 15.2 16.6 1.2 73.0 66.6 12.6 13.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.4 16.2 0.7 63.4 58.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.8 14.7 0.9 71.0 65.3 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.7 18.7 1.1 69.5 62.5 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.6 14.3 0.7 65.3 59.9 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.3 16.0 0.5 59.5 56.0 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.4 14.8 0.7 63.9 58.9 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.0 15.9 0.7 63.6 58.9 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.2 15.2 0.7 65.0 60.2 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.3 14.2 0.7 65.4 61.2 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.0 15.9 0.5 61.0 56.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 17.0 17.4 18.1 1.2 73.5 67.8 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.3 15.2 0.8 66.8 61.9 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.8 18.3 1.0 69.7 62.2 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.4 14.0 13.9 0.8 68.6 62.2 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.8 18.2 0.5 59.6 55.0 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 9.8 10.0 11.9 0.9 70.9 64.2 8.6 9.2 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.3 17.6 0.7 62.6 58.1 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.5 18.2 0.9 66.6 59.9 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.1 18.0 0.3 56.4 53.1 14.1 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.7 15.9 0.7 64.9 59.3 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.4 16.1 17.4 1.0 68.0 62.3 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.6 14.1 0.6 63.1 59.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.9 18.1 1.0 68.3 62.2 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.8 16.9 1.2 73.2 67.1 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.4 14.2 13.5 0.9 69.6 62.9 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.1 16.6 18.6 0.8 64.6 58.9 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------