***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 16.3 16.7 19.7 1.5 85.3 79.3 15.1 15.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.3 18.9 1.0 76.8 71.4 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.4 18.8 19.6 1.1 79.5 73.9 17.2 17.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 14.5 15.6 17.5 1.8 92.8 87.3 12.7 13.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 14.7 15.1 17.5 1.4 84.9 79.8 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 13.6 14.4 15.6 1.8 95.0 90.3 12.6 13.0 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 16.3 16.7 19.3 1.3 82.5 76.7 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 9.6 10.2 15.3 1.4 88.3 82.5 8.3 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 15.7 16.0 17.1 0.9 76.7 72.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 15.7 16.1 15.8 1.2 84.4 79.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 15.3 15.7 17.0 1.2 82.9 78.1 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 13.5 14.0 16.4 1.5 88.7 83.1 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 14.6 15.2 15.7 1.4 89.6 84.3 13.5 13.9 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.5 16.9 0.9 78.6 73.4 15.2 15.7 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 17.1 18.0 19.2 1.7 91.9 86.9 15.6 16.2 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 16.3 17.0 16.7 1.6 90.9 85.6 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 16.6 16.9 18.8 1.1 80.5 74.7 15.5 16.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 14.1 14.8 15.1 1.5 90.0 84.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 15.9 16.0 18.8 0.8 71.3 66.8 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 10.0 10.9 13.4 1.7 94.7 89.2 9.0 9.4 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 15.5 15.8 18.6 1.2 82.3 76.9 14.5 14.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.6 18.8 1.0 77.9 72.5 14.4 14.8 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.2 18.7 0.6 65.7 62.6 14.5 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.0 16.4 17.0 1.2 83.5 77.9 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 15.9 16.3 18.6 1.5 86.8 81.0 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 14.8 15.5 15.5 1.6 93.1 87.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 16.4 17.0 19.1 1.6 87.0 81.0 15.0 15.5 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 14.7 15.6 18.0 1.8 93.7 88.6 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 13.6 14.3 14.5 1.4 88.9 83.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.6 19.3 1.1 78.1 72.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------