***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 31.0 31.8 32.1 2.7 81.6 73.6 28.2 29.4 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 30.3 30.7 31.4 1.9 73.6 67.3 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 30.4 30.6 31.6 1.8 71.4 65.6 28.2 29.2 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 24.1 25.6 30.3 3.3 87.3 79.0 21.1 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 31.4 32.1 30.4 2.3 77.0 69.7 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 30.3 31.7 28.9 3.3 87.7 78.3 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.9 31.8 2.5 80.3 72.6 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 19.0 19.8 29.1 2.7 80.3 71.7 16.6 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.6 30.7 30.3 1.7 71.0 64.8 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 30.3 31.0 29.2 2.4 77.0 69.1 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 30.8 31.3 30.7 2.2 74.9 67.6 28.4 29.5 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 30.3 30.9 30.6 2.6 79.0 71.0 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 31.5 32.0 30.4 2.4 77.6 70.1 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.2 29.4 1.5 68.1 62.2 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 31.6 32.6 32.3 2.9 83.7 76.2 29.0 30.1 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 32.2 32.9 30.7 2.6 80.2 72.3 29.3 30.6 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 29.8 30.6 31.5 2.6 80.9 73.5 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 29.3 30.1 28.7 2.7 79.8 70.9 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.9 31.1 1.3 66.9 62.1 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 25.7 27.2 27.4 3.5 87.0 76.9 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 30.6 31.1 31.5 2.2 75.8 68.9 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 30.4 31.0 31.2 2.2 76.9 70.2 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.6 30.6 0.8 59.6 56.6 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 29.0 30.1 29.9 1.9 72.1 65.3 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 31.1 32.0 30.9 2.8 82.7 74.7 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 31.2 31.7 30.2 2.5 79.2 71.6 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 30.6 31.4 31.4 2.8 82.8 74.6 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 31.7 32.9 31.2 3.1 86.2 78.1 28.9 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 24.9 25.8 27.9 2.7 80.4 71.2 22.4 23.5 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.6 31.6 2.0 73.9 67.5 28.1 29.1 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------