***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 30.3 31.7 30.4 1.7 71.4 65.6 28.4 29.8 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.8 30.7 30.0 1.4 68.0 62.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.8 30.5 30.2 1.1 64.1 59.9 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.4 25.0 28.7 1.9 74.9 69.1 21.1 22.6 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.7 31.4 28.4 1.1 63.9 60.0 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 29.0 30.1 26.2 1.3 68.2 63.1 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 30.4 30.9 30.3 1.8 73.0 66.8 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 18.3 18.8 26.9 0.9 61.7 57.8 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.9 30.2 28.2 0.8 60.2 56.9 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 29.7 30.3 27.2 1.0 62.6 58.5 27.9 29.2 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.6 28.2 0.8 60.1 57.0 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.8 28.3 0.8 59.5 56.5 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 30.5 31.0 27.4 0.9 61.0 57.8 28.6 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 29.5 29.9 27.6 0.8 60.0 56.3 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 31.6 31.8 29.7 1.7 72.5 67.5 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 31.2 31.9 28.0 1.0 63.5 59.9 29.3 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.7 30.3 2.0 76.0 68.9 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.7 29.5 26.7 1.2 65.5 60.3 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 29.4 30.0 29.8 0.9 62.0 58.3 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 24.7 25.7 24.6 1.3 66.8 61.4 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 29.9 30.8 29.4 1.2 65.4 60.9 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 30.6 30.9 30.0 1.7 71.7 65.4 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.4 29.4 0.4 55.6 53.4 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.8 27.9 1.0 62.5 58.2 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 31.2 31.7 28.9 1.9 74.5 68.2 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 30.2 30.3 27.9 0.6 57.4 55.1 28.2 29.7 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 30.7 31.3 29.6 1.8 74.1 67.6 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 31.7 32.1 28.9 1.7 72.7 67.4 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 24.2 25.0 25.7 1.2 64.8 59.7 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.7 30.6 30.1 1.3 67.3 62.3 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------