***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.3 29.7 1.5 68.0 63.2 26.7 28.0 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.8 29.4 1.2 64.8 60.4 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.7 29.6 1.1 62.9 59.3 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 22.7 22.9 27.8 1.7 70.7 65.4 20.2 21.4 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.7 27.7 1.0 62.4 59.2 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.8 25.5 1.3 67.0 63.2 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 28.7 28.7 29.5 1.5 68.7 63.1 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.7 26.3 1.0 61.6 58.4 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.7 27.6 0.8 59.6 57.1 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.8 26.6 1.0 61.8 58.5 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.9 29.2 27.6 0.8 59.9 57.3 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.5 27.7 0.8 59.9 57.3 26.4 27.8 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.7 26.8 0.9 60.8 58.4 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.1 28.4 27.1 0.9 60.8 57.5 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 30.0 30.2 28.9 1.5 69.3 64.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.4 27.3 1.0 62.6 59.6 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 28.2 28.4 29.4 1.7 70.2 63.9 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.4 28.0 26.0 1.2 64.4 60.2 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.8 28.1 29.3 0.9 60.6 57.4 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.3 23.8 1.2 64.8 60.6 21.8 23.2 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 28.5 29.1 28.8 1.2 63.8 60.1 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.8 28.6 29.1 1.4 66.5 61.2 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.0 27.9 29.0 0.5 56.3 54.2 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.8 28.2 27.4 1.0 62.4 58.7 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 29.5 29.7 28.1 1.7 70.0 64.8 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 28.9 29.1 27.3 0.7 58.7 56.9 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 29.0 29.1 28.9 1.6 69.9 64.6 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 30.1 30.3 28.1 1.5 69.2 64.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.7 25.0 1.2 64.1 60.0 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.6 29.5 1.2 64.6 60.4 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------