***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 30.6 31.5 31.2 2.2 84.8 79.3 28.3 29.2 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 29.9 30.3 30.6 1.6 77.1 72.6 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 29.9 30.3 30.8 1.6 75.4 71.1 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 23.8 25.5 29.5 2.9 92.5 87.1 21.2 22.2 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 31.0 31.8 29.5 2.0 82.1 77.2 28.7 29.7 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 29.9 31.7 27.9 2.9 93.8 87.8 27.4 28.3 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 29.7 30.6 30.9 2.1 84.3 79.0 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 18.8 19.8 28.3 2.4 85.9 79.5 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.5 29.4 1.5 75.5 71.3 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 30.1 30.8 28.4 2.1 82.7 76.9 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 30.5 31.2 29.7 1.9 80.3 75.3 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 29.8 30.7 29.7 2.3 84.4 78.5 27.6 28.6 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 31.0 31.9 29.3 2.1 84.0 78.4 28.7 29.7 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 29.7 30.0 28.6 1.3 72.9 68.4 27.7 28.7 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 31.2 32.4 31.2 2.6 89.5 84.5 28.9 29.8 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 31.7 32.8 29.7 2.3 86.2 80.7 29.3 30.3 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 29.4 30.3 30.7 2.2 85.7 80.1 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 29.0 30.0 27.8 2.4 86.0 79.4 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 29.5 29.6 30.3 1.1 69.5 66.1 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 25.4 26.9 26.2 2.8 91.3 84.1 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.9 30.5 1.9 80.5 75.6 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 29.9 30.5 30.3 1.8 80.7 75.5 27.7 28.7 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.2 29.9 0.7 61.4 59.6 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.4 29.9 29.0 1.7 77.9 72.8 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 30.6 31.7 29.9 2.4 87.0 81.6 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 30.7 31.6 29.4 2.2 84.9 78.9 28.4 29.3 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 30.1 31.0 30.5 2.4 86.6 81.0 27.9 28.8 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 31.3 32.8 30.3 2.8 92.0 86.8 28.9 29.8 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 24.7 25.8 27.0 2.4 86.6 79.7 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 29.8 30.3 30.7 1.7 77.3 72.8 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------