***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 2.8 3.9 3.7 27.1 33.7 23.4 3.8 7.3 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.0 6.0 5.3 42.2 42.8 33.6 3.8 7.9 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 2.2 3.3 3.3 23.9 31.8 21.5 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 2.8 3.7 2.5 21.0 28.2 18.2 4.7 9.3 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 1.9 2.4 2.1 18.8 25.9 15.3 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 1.1 0.7 1.3 10.9 16.3 10.1 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.7 5.2 5.2 39.8 41.8 32.6 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 3.2 3.3 3.2 22.2 24.3 17.3 5.3 11.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 1.8 1.7 2.2 16.8 23.8 15.8 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 3.1 3.5 3.6 23.6 27.2 19.2 4.8 10.1 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 2.1 2.4 2.3 20.2 26.5 15.9 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 2.1 2.1 1.8 17.1 22.1 13.8 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 0.9 0.6 0.9 8.9 16.8 8.7 2.1 5.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 1.7 2.7 4.4 26.0 30.7 22.3 3.1 7.3 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 1.7 1.6 1.4 14.2 24.3 14.0 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 1.3 1.0 1.2 11.6 18.0 10.4 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.8 6.8 5.4 45.5 45.8 35.8 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 3.6 4.4 4.5 26.9 27.6 19.4 5.5 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.0 4.6 4.9 38.0 39.8 30.6 3.2 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 2.9 2.3 3.1 18.5 17.7 13.5 5.0 8.9 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 2.1 2.2 2.3 17.3 25.5 16.6 3.4 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.2 6.0 5.7 46.2 45.8 34.4 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 2.4 3.6 3.9 29.0 34.0 24.6 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 3.7 5.1 3.8 23.8 29.3 19.9 6.0 10.8 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 2.6 3.1 3.0 23.1 30.7 19.5 3.5 7.7 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 1.0 0.4 0.6 7.1 13.0 7.0 2.4 5.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 2.8 3.7 4.0 29.2 34.5 24.1 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 1.5 1.6 1.7 14.7 23.1 13.9 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 4.0 4.4 4.0 24.5 23.9 17.9 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.5 3.8 4.8 37.2 39.9 30.3 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------