***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.3 5.0 4.9 50.6 46.3 30.0 2.8 5.8 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.9 7.0 5.7 63.5 51.3 35.2 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.2 5.1 4.9 48.1 44.6 29.4 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 2.9 4.5 3.5 36.7 38.1 25.3 3.5 7.7 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 1.9 2.5 2.9 30.7 34.2 23.6 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.9 8.1 6.3 58.2 47.7 30.8 4.6 8.7 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.9 5.6 5.8 65.5 52.8 35.1 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 3.5 6.6 4.3 44.5 42.1 26.5 4.7 8.6 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 2.6 3.8 3.3 32.3 34.8 23.2 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 3.6 6.4 4.2 41.2 40.3 25.6 4.7 8.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 2.6 4.0 3.3 36.4 36.8 24.4 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 2.8 5.5 3.9 49.5 44.6 26.1 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 2.6 6.6 4.8 59.6 49.8 27.7 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 4.2 8.3 6.5 50.5 46.4 30.7 5.1 9.3 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.5 4.4 3.2 41.2 42.1 27.2 2.8 6.3 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 2.5 4.6 4.0 47.3 43.1 27.7 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 2.8 6.3 5.7 63.1 51.1 34.4 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 4.1 6.8 5.4 45.9 42.6 27.9 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.0 7.3 5.8 63.2 51.4 35.3 3.4 6.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 3.0 5.6 5.6 47.3 41.4 28.0 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 2.7 4.0 3.4 32.5 36.0 23.2 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.6 5.7 5.3 58.0 48.2 33.5 3.0 6.0 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.0 5.1 5.6 59.1 49.8 34.1 2.3 5.1 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 3.6 6.8 5.2 42.5 40.7 27.0 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 2.5 4.3 4.3 40.0 39.5 26.3 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 2.1 7.0 5.3 70.4 52.9 24.5 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 2.2 4.4 5.0 47.3 43.2 28.7 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.9 5.5 3.6 43.3 43.2 28.3 3.3 7.4 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 4.0 6.6 6.0 45.7 39.9 27.2 5.1 9.4 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.2 5.1 5.1 56.2 48.1 33.3 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------