***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.7 9.3 6.5 76.7 58.2 32.2 3.2 6.9 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 2.2 5.6 4.5 53.4 48.2 30.1 2.8 5.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 3.4 9.1 6.7 72.0 56.3 33.2 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 1.9 9.2 7.6 89.6 63.8 35.5 2.2 5.3 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 1.4 5.5 7.3 90.9 63.7 35.6 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.6 6.2 7.2 82.1 60.6 38.0 1.7 4.0 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.9 7.9 5.2 63.4 53.0 32.0 3.1 7.1 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 2.6 11.1 8.9 97.7 65.0 39.9 2.6 6.0 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 1.8 9.0 7.9 93.4 64.0 36.7 2.0 4.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 1.7 7.5 9.7 98.8 65.4 39.6 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 1.2 5.9 6.3 89.8 63.0 36.4 1.3 3.4 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 1.7 4.9 6.2 89.8 62.8 37.3 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.1 4.9 5.6 81.9 60.8 35.8 1.2 3.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.0 13.3 10.9 88.3 62.6 40.3 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.4 7.0 5.6 84.4 62.1 33.7 1.6 4.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 1.3 6.0 6.1 88.2 62.7 35.8 1.5 3.5 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 1.8 4.2 4.0 48.0 45.1 28.1 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 2.0 10.1 12.5 104.9 67.3 41.7 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.4 6.3 4.8 54.0 48.9 30.8 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.1 10.0 12.7 102.5 66.0 43.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 1.8 8.2 7.4 87.8 62.7 34.5 2.0 4.8 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 2.5 5.1 4.3 47.2 45.3 29.8 2.7 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.6 7.0 5.8 60.9 52.7 33.4 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 2.5 10.4 10.8 96.0 65.0 40.7 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 1.6 6.1 6.8 79.0 60.0 33.7 1.9 4.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 1.3 4.6 4.5 80.9 59.3 33.2 1.6 3.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 3.3 11.0 6.4 74.2 57.6 32.1 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 1.3 6.2 7.3 96.1 65.8 35.5 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 2.5 9.9 12.7 99.5 65.3 42.8 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.3 5.7 5.3 60.2 51.5 32.0 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------