***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 17.5 19.5 22.5 3.3 97.8 95.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 17.6 19.0 21.7 2.5 91.9 89.9 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 19.8 21.4 21.9 2.5 93.9 91.3 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 15.1 16.1 18.8 1.9 88.7 85.9 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 16.2 17.6 19.3 2.2 92.2 89.3 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 14.5 15.2 16.4 1.5 85.5 81.3 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.7 19.6 22.3 3.0 95.4 93.9 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 10.7 12.7 17.4 2.5 96.5 94.2 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 17.2 19.5 20.8 3.2 98.5 97.2 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 17.2 19.3 18.5 2.8 97.8 96.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 16.8 18.1 18.8 2.1 93.3 90.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 14.8 16.2 18.1 2.4 95.4 92.5 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 15.7 16.4 17.0 1.4 83.9 79.0 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 17.7 18.9 19.6 2.1 92.8 90.1 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 18.1 19.0 20.5 1.8 87.4 83.2 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 17.5 18.1 17.8 1.4 82.7 78.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 18.0 18.9 20.9 2.2 89.3 87.4 15.7 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 15.6 17.1 17.2 2.2 95.1 93.1 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 17.4 18.7 21.7 2.6 92.7 90.7 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 11.6 13.1 15.1 2.2 94.3 92.0 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 16.9 18.7 21.9 2.9 96.3 93.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 16.8 17.5 21.0 2.0 87.4 85.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 16.8 18.5 21.9 2.8 95.7 93.8 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 17.4 18.8 19.5 2.2 93.8 91.2 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 17.4 19.5 21.2 3.0 97.0 94.8 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 15.9 16.7 16.6 1.7 87.9 84.2 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 18.0 20.9 21.7 3.2 97.8 95.9 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 15.9 16.5 19.2 1.5 83.7 79.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 14.7 16.6 16.7 2.4 96.3 94.5 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 17.9 19.6 22.3 2.9 94.7 92.9 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------