***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 16.8 17.9 21.2 2.4 90.1 82.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 16.4 17.0 20.8 1.9 84.5 76.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 19.0 19.7 20.6 1.8 85.2 77.2 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 15.1 15.9 18.4 1.5 84.0 74.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 15.2 15.9 18.0 1.5 84.2 75.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 14.1 14.8 16.2 1.6 86.6 78.0 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 16.7 17.4 21.1 2.2 86.9 78.8 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 10.3 11.7 16.5 2.0 92.2 82.8 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 16.4 17.4 18.5 1.8 88.2 79.2 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 16.3 17.2 16.9 1.8 89.5 80.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.5 17.5 1.6 85.6 76.9 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 14.0 14.8 17.4 1.9 90.1 81.4 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 15.2 15.9 16.4 1.4 84.6 76.7 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.4 18.3 1.5 84.4 73.8 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 17.4 18.3 19.4 1.8 89.1 79.5 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 16.7 17.2 17.1 1.3 81.6 73.8 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 17.0 17.3 19.8 1.5 78.4 71.3 15.6 16.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 14.6 15.7 16.2 1.7 88.0 77.6 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 16.5 17.1 20.7 1.8 84.6 75.8 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 10.4 11.2 14.2 1.5 85.7 75.5 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 16.1 16.9 19.9 2.0 87.8 79.4 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.8 16.0 19.5 1.2 74.6 67.5 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 15.9 16.6 20.3 1.9 87.3 77.2 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 16.7 17.5 18.2 1.7 86.6 76.6 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 16.5 17.6 19.4 2.2 90.0 81.5 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.4 16.0 16.8 1.6 85.8 77.6 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 16.9 18.3 20.3 2.5 91.3 83.4 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 15.1 15.8 18.8 1.6 84.4 75.2 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 14.2 15.2 15.5 1.7 88.3 77.1 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 16.8 17.5 21.1 2.0 86.1 78.0 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------