***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 16.6 17.2 19.7 2.0 82.6 72.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 16.6 17.2 19.4 1.7 78.8 69.8 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 19.0 19.3 19.2 1.4 75.7 67.8 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 15.0 15.2 17.0 1.2 73.8 66.8 12.4 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 14.6 14.8 16.6 1.2 73.6 66.6 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 13.7 13.9 14.9 1.1 74.4 67.0 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.4 19.6 1.9 81.5 71.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 9.8 10.4 15.1 1.5 81.1 71.8 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 15.7 16.0 17.0 1.4 77.2 68.7 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 15.6 15.9 15.5 1.3 78.0 69.5 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 15.1 15.3 16.2 1.2 74.5 67.6 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.4 13.7 16.1 1.4 79.0 70.7 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.4 15.1 1.0 71.7 65.4 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 16.4 16.7 16.8 1.3 75.5 67.6 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 17.0 17.4 18.1 1.4 77.6 69.3 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.3 15.8 1.0 71.0 65.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.7 17.1 18.5 1.4 74.9 66.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 14.0 14.4 14.8 1.3 77.7 69.3 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 16.3 16.7 19.2 1.6 77.8 69.2 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 9.8 10.0 13.0 1.2 76.4 68.5 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.6 15.9 18.4 1.5 78.0 69.1 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 15.5 15.8 18.3 1.2 72.4 65.3 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 15.7 16.1 18.8 1.5 78.6 69.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.1 16.8 1.2 75.7 67.9 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.9 18.0 1.8 82.9 72.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 14.7 14.9 15.5 1.1 73.6 66.1 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 17.2 18.4 18.9 2.1 84.7 74.1 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 14.5 14.6 17.4 1.1 73.0 66.3 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 14.3 14.8 14.2 1.3 79.0 70.4 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.9 17.5 19.7 1.7 79.5 70.4 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------