***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.4 18.4 1.0 67.6 62.3 13.7 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.0 18.2 0.8 64.5 60.2 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.9 17.1 18.0 0.6 61.6 58.1 15.5 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.7 15.9 0.6 63.0 59.4 10.9 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 14.1 13.7 15.5 0.6 62.7 59.1 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.9 12.8 13.9 0.8 67.4 63.2 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.4 18.4 1.0 68.0 62.7 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 8.8 8.9 14.0 0.9 70.9 65.3 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.2 15.8 0.7 65.6 60.9 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 15.0 14.9 14.4 0.8 67.8 62.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.4 15.1 0.7 65.5 61.7 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.0 15.1 1.0 71.4 66.0 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 13.8 13.9 14.3 0.9 69.0 64.5 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.7 15.4 15.8 0.6 63.3 59.4 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.2 16.9 0.9 68.9 63.3 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.4 14.9 0.7 64.6 61.0 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.3 17.3 0.5 60.5 57.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.2 13.8 0.7 66.5 61.8 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.1 18.1 0.7 63.4 59.4 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.2 11.9 0.5 62.5 59.0 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.7 17.2 0.7 64.2 59.8 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.1 17.2 0.4 58.7 56.3 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 14.7 14.5 17.7 0.7 64.9 60.2 13.1 13.8 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.1 15.7 0.6 64.3 60.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.1 16.8 1.0 69.5 63.9 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.2 14.7 1.0 71.1 65.4 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.9 17.6 1.1 71.1 65.0 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.6 16.3 0.6 63.7 59.8 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 12.9 12.7 13.1 0.7 66.5 61.9 10.8 11.7 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.8 15.5 18.5 0.8 65.2 60.6 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------