***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 16.3 17.4 20.4 2.2 95.4 90.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.2 17.1 20.0 1.7 90.4 85.0 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 18.5 19.3 19.9 1.6 90.2 84.2 17.0 17.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 14.2 15.0 17.5 1.3 87.3 81.2 12.5 13.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 14.6 15.3 17.3 1.4 89.1 83.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 13.5 14.0 15.4 1.2 88.7 83.2 12.6 12.9 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 16.4 17.4 20.4 2.0 93.3 88.4 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 9.6 10.8 15.7 1.8 95.8 91.1 8.2 8.7 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 16.0 17.0 18.0 1.8 94.7 89.5 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 15.7 16.7 16.3 1.7 94.8 89.7 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 15.3 16.0 16.9 1.4 90.2 84.5 14.1 14.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 13.5 14.4 16.7 1.7 94.3 89.7 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 14.5 15.1 15.7 1.2 87.8 82.1 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 16.3 17.0 17.6 1.4 90.1 83.1 15.2 15.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 17.0 17.8 18.7 1.5 90.0 83.8 15.6 16.1 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 16.2 16.7 16.4 1.1 84.6 78.9 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 16.6 17.1 19.1 1.4 86.4 80.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 14.1 15.0 15.5 1.5 93.1 87.1 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 16.1 16.8 19.9 1.7 90.4 84.7 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 10.0 10.7 13.6 1.4 92.0 86.1 9.0 9.4 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 15.5 16.3 19.4 1.8 93.2 87.7 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 15.4 15.7 19.0 1.2 83.1 77.4 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 15.4 16.0 19.7 1.7 92.6 86.5 14.4 14.8 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 16.0 16.7 17.6 1.4 91.1 84.6 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 15.9 16.9 18.9 2.0 95.4 90.4 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 14.7 15.3 15.9 1.4 90.6 84.9 13.8 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 16.4 17.8 19.6 2.2 96.2 91.7 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 14.5 15.0 17.9 1.2 85.4 79.3 13.4 13.8 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 13.6 14.7 14.9 1.5 94.0 88.0 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 16.5 17.3 20.4 1.9 92.0 86.9 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------