***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 31.6 34.1 34.6 4.8 95.5 94.4 28.4 29.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 31.4 33.5 35.0 4.6 93.6 92.5 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 31.3 33.1 34.3 4.3 92.3 91.0 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 24.7 25.9 31.1 3.4 88.8 87.7 21.3 22.5 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 32.1 34.0 32.5 4.1 92.4 91.3 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 30.7 31.9 28.7 3.1 88.1 86.7 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 31.1 33.8 35.2 5.0 95.5 94.4 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 19.7 21.6 30.5 4.3 93.8 92.4 16.8 17.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 31.4 33.6 33.7 4.6 94.6 93.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 31.1 33.2 31.8 4.6 94.5 93.3 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 31.5 33.4 32.1 4.1 92.4 91.3 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 30.7 32.8 31.6 4.2 93.8 92.5 27.5 28.6 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 32.0 34.2 31.6 4.2 93.9 92.9 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 30.9 32.9 32.5 4.3 93.0 91.4 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 32.1 33.7 33.6 3.8 91.9 91.0 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 32.7 34.4 31.6 3.7 91.2 90.2 29.2 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 30.9 32.9 34.0 4.2 92.2 90.8 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 29.9 31.8 30.7 4.6 94.1 92.5 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 31.0 33.1 34.8 4.6 93.5 92.2 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 26.1 27.6 27.8 3.7 90.6 88.5 23.0 24.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 31.4 33.4 34.4 4.5 93.4 92.0 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 31.4 33.3 33.6 4.0 91.2 89.6 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 31.0 33.4 34.6 4.9 95.0 93.6 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 30.6 32.6 32.7 4.5 93.8 92.4 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 31.7 34.1 33.3 4.6 95.0 94.1 28.5 29.6 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 31.7 33.7 30.9 4.0 93.5 92.0 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 31.2 33.9 34.1 5.0 96.3 95.4 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 32.1 33.1 31.9 3.2 88.1 87.1 29.1 30.2 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 25.5 27.4 29.6 4.4 93.4 91.5 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 31.2 33.5 35.1 4.7 94.0 93.0 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------