***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 31.1 33.0 32.6 3.3 89.7 80.2 28.2 29.4 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 30.8 32.0 32.5 3.0 85.4 76.2 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 30.8 31.9 32.2 2.8 85.0 76.0 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 24.0 25.4 30.5 2.6 84.5 76.4 21.1 22.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 31.7 33.1 30.5 2.7 84.7 76.4 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 30.2 31.5 28.4 2.6 85.2 78.1 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.8 32.6 3.2 87.5 78.1 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 19.3 20.9 29.3 3.3 89.2 80.4 16.6 17.7 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 30.8 32.3 30.9 3.0 86.9 77.9 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 30.7 32.3 29.7 3.2 88.2 79.1 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 31.2 32.7 30.2 2.9 86.4 78.2 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 30.5 32.2 30.4 3.2 88.3 80.1 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 31.7 33.1 29.7 2.8 85.8 78.5 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 30.7 31.8 30.1 2.8 84.3 74.7 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 31.7 33.2 31.3 2.9 88.0 80.1 29.0 30.2 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 32.3 33.5 29.9 2.6 83.7 76.5 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.8 31.6 2.5 80.8 72.3 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 29.6 31.0 28.8 3.1 87.1 77.4 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 30.5 31.7 32.5 2.9 85.0 75.8 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 25.8 27.2 26.7 2.9 86.0 76.5 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 30.9 32.3 31.7 2.9 86.3 77.1 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 30.7 31.3 31.2 2.3 78.7 70.4 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.8 32.1 3.0 85.8 76.3 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 30.3 31.5 30.3 2.9 85.6 76.1 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.9 30.9 3.2 89.2 79.6 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 31.3 32.8 30.0 2.9 87.3 79.6 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 30.8 32.7 31.8 3.5 91.0 81.3 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 31.6 32.7 30.9 2.6 84.4 76.9 28.9 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 25.2 26.7 27.8 3.1 87.3 77.3 22.3 23.5 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 30.7 32.1 32.7 3.1 86.8 77.5 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------