***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 31.5 32.7 31.1 2.5 81.1 73.8 28.4 29.8 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 30.8 31.5 31.0 2.1 77.1 70.0 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 30.8 31.5 30.7 2.0 75.3 68.7 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 24.5 25.1 29.1 2.0 76.4 70.5 21.0 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 31.8 32.5 29.0 1.9 75.6 69.1 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.9 27.0 1.9 76.8 69.7 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 30.5 31.5 31.0 2.4 79.5 72.0 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 19.5 20.5 27.7 2.3 79.7 71.2 16.4 17.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 30.9 31.7 29.4 2.1 77.2 69.8 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.8 31.7 28.1 2.2 78.2 70.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 31.3 32.1 28.7 2.0 77.1 70.0 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 30.6 31.6 28.8 2.2 79.0 71.1 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 31.7 32.4 28.2 2.0 76.4 69.5 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 30.4 31.0 28.5 1.8 74.3 67.1 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 31.8 32.7 30.0 2.3 80.9 74.6 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 32.3 32.9 28.5 1.8 74.9 68.5 29.3 30.7 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 30.0 30.5 30.2 1.8 73.9 67.2 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 29.6 30.4 27.1 2.0 76.2 68.3 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 30.4 31.1 30.9 2.1 76.3 69.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 25.7 26.5 25.1 1.8 75.1 67.2 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 30.9 31.8 30.2 2.1 76.9 70.0 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.5 30.8 29.9 1.6 71.8 65.3 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 30.3 30.9 30.5 2.1 76.4 69.1 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.9 28.6 1.9 75.0 67.7 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 31.4 32.5 29.4 2.5 81.4 74.1 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 31.3 31.9 28.4 1.9 76.3 68.8 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 30.9 32.2 30.3 2.7 83.2 75.4 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 31.8 32.4 29.5 2.0 76.4 70.6 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 25.2 26.1 26.2 2.0 76.2 67.9 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 30.7 31.6 31.2 2.2 78.0 70.9 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------