***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 29.0 28.6 29.6 1.1 65.9 62.9 26.1 27.4 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.9 29.6 0.8 61.1 59.2 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.8 28.0 29.4 0.8 60.7 59.1 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 22.2 21.7 27.7 0.8 61.6 59.9 19.6 20.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.0 27.6 0.8 61.3 59.3 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 28.4 28.3 25.8 1.2 66.9 62.8 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.8 29.5 1.0 63.4 60.8 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.6 26.3 1.2 66.3 62.4 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.5 28.0 1.0 63.0 60.3 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.5 26.8 1.1 64.3 61.1 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 28.3 29.0 27.4 1.0 63.9 61.1 26.4 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 27.7 28.5 27.5 1.2 66.5 62.8 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 28.8 29.5 27.0 1.1 65.1 61.8 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.9 27.4 0.8 60.3 58.2 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 29.7 29.5 28.3 1.1 66.5 63.5 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.9 27.3 0.9 62.5 60.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.9 28.9 0.6 58.0 56.8 25.0 26.3 27.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 26.9 27.3 25.9 0.9 61.9 59.4 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.4 27.7 29.6 0.8 60.5 58.7 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.5 23.8 0.8 60.4 58.2 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.0 28.4 28.8 0.9 62.3 60.2 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.4 27.3 28.7 0.5 56.5 55.6 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.8 29.3 0.9 61.3 59.0 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.6 27.4 0.8 61.0 58.8 25.4 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 29.3 28.9 27.9 1.1 66.2 63.3 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 29.3 29.1 27.2 1.0 65.2 61.7 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 28.6 28.4 28.7 1.3 67.9 64.3 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 29.8 29.3 28.0 0.9 62.3 60.3 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 23.0 24.9 0.9 61.6 59.1 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.9 29.7 0.9 62.3 60.2 25.6 27.0 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------