***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 2.3 2.2 1.5 12.6 20.7 14.4 4.3 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.3 20.5 28.1 21.6 4.4 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 1.8 1.5 1.6 14.3 19.2 15.8 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 3.1 1.9 1.3 11.7 14.5 11.5 6.1 11.8 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 2.3 2.8 3.0 25.6 27.7 21.7 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 2.0 1.2 1.5 14.8 20.1 16.1 3.1 7.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 2.1 2.5 2.2 19.3 26.8 19.0 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.4 8.5 5.2 43.6 39.6 32.7 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 2.6 2.7 2.4 20.3 23.5 17.5 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 4.4 4.9 4.1 29.5 29.9 24.6 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 3.1 3.3 2.0 20.2 25.6 19.1 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 4.0 5.3 3.1 36.9 36.7 29.5 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.1 3.3 3.1 34.1 34.1 31.0 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 3.1 2.5 3.5 23.0 26.3 22.9 3.7 8.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 2.6 2.5 2.0 19.5 23.2 19.5 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 2.4 2.5 2.1 22.2 26.1 22.3 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 2.4 3.1 2.4 21.3 27.5 19.6 4.2 9.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.5 6.2 6.3 39.3 35.8 31.9 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 2.5 2.2 2.0 18.0 25.0 19.7 3.8 8.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.4 8.1 9.2 61.6 48.5 43.4 4.3 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 1.8 1.5 1.8 15.0 18.8 12.9 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 2.5 3.2 2.8 24.0 29.0 22.3 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 2.4 2.0 1.8 14.8 21.3 17.2 3.6 7.1 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 4.4 4.2 3.5 23.6 25.5 22.1 6.1 11.7 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 2.5 2.2 2.5 18.9 21.6 17.6 4.1 8.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.3 7.1 83.3 58.4 48.9 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 2.1 1.9 1.9 14.3 20.2 15.7 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 2.2 1.8 1.5 14.3 18.2 15.2 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 9.1 7.1 44.9 39.9 34.6 7.0 12.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 1.7 1.7 1.9 17.3 24.8 19.2 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------