***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.3 4.7 3.4 43.3 45.4 29.1 2.6 5.5 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.9 4.1 3.8 51.3 45.8 31.5 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.7 5.5 4.0 51.1 46.6 30.4 2.7 6.4 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 1.9 6.6 4.7 71.5 56.2 31.0 2.5 5.3 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 1.7 5.6 5.3 71.8 56.8 32.7 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 2.7 8.1 5.6 59.4 51.6 28.4 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.9 4.3 3.9 52.9 46.0 30.5 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 3.7 10.0 6.5 70.5 55.9 32.8 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 2.0 6.8 5.7 68.3 55.5 31.9 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 2.8 8.8 6.8 70.3 55.9 33.3 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 2.2 5.9 4.2 68.6 54.7 30.1 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 1.9 5.8 4.5 75.0 57.6 31.6 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 1.9 5.8 4.6 74.4 55.6 31.1 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.2 9.2 6.5 58.1 51.0 33.9 4.8 8.9 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 1.8 5.8 4.2 68.9 54.9 30.0 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 1.4 4.7 3.8 69.3 54.2 30.1 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.6 3.8 49.2 44.2 30.2 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.2 7.6 8.9 74.7 57.4 36.9 3.7 6.3 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.6 5.0 3.6 47.5 44.7 29.8 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.4 10.3 10.3 83.2 60.8 39.0 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 2.6 7.0 4.3 56.6 50.7 29.3 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.2 4.4 4.1 46.0 44.3 28.2 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.5 4.5 3.7 45.4 44.1 28.5 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.7 8.4 6.6 63.0 52.3 33.9 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.0 6.3 4.8 53.4 49.6 32.5 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.8 6.8 3.6 72.8 54.5 32.2 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.7 5.5 4.4 45.7 45.8 30.5 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 1.8 6.1 4.2 70.3 55.8 29.9 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 4.2 11.3 9.6 78.9 58.7 38.0 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.2 4.4 4.0 51.5 45.9 31.1 2.2 5.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------