***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.1 6.4 4.6 76.9 56.5 34.3 2.1 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 2.7 10.4 6.4 100.6 63.9 41.1 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 3.0 10.7 6.1 100.7 64.7 39.2 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 2.0 8.4 4.9 85.9 61.3 34.9 2.1 5.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 1.3 6.2 6.3 100.7 65.9 38.7 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 1.5 5.1 5.9 75.2 58.1 36.7 1.5 3.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.9 10.0 5.9 87.5 59.3 40.2 2.8 6.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 2.7 14.4 7.9 113.6 69.5 42.2 3.0 6.7 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 1.9 11.0 7.6 108.9 68.4 38.9 1.9 5.0 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.1 9.8 8.6 110.2 68.7 42.2 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 1.6 7.4 5.2 100.7 65.8 37.5 1.6 3.8 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 1.6 5.9 5.2 106.5 67.4 38.2 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 1.4 5.4 4.6 88.7 62.1 38.7 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.3 14.1 8.7 99.9 65.0 45.2 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.7 7.0 4.3 81.0 60.7 30.5 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.5 5.7 4.0 83.7 60.8 37.5 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.8 8.9 6.4 91.4 61.3 40.6 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.8 13.9 10.4 110.7 68.8 47.5 2.7 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.3 10.4 6.5 106.6 66.2 41.5 2.4 5.6 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.4 13.7 11.9 133.3 73.9 50.7 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 1.7 9.2 5.8 100.9 65.9 38.3 1.9 4.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.0 12.3 7.2 104.9 65.9 43.4 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.9 11.2 6.5 107.6 66.7 41.6 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.1 12.6 8.9 106.2 67.3 45.6 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 1.7 5.4 5.5 81.4 59.1 37.1 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.4 4.7 3.9 93.3 62.7 37.8 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.5 8.7 5.3 74.3 55.5 36.0 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.6 5.4 4.3 83.4 60.9 33.4 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 3.3 13.4 10.5 109.5 68.3 47.7 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.5 8.3 6.0 96.0 62.6 39.9 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------