***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 3.5 18.9 5.9 139.3 75.2 36.9 4.2 8.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.3 18.3 6.9 125.8 72.5 40.0 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.4 22.1 6.2 126.2 72.6 40.2 3.6 8.8 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.6 17.7 5.7 111.2 69.0 39.2 4.1 8.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.7 17.5 6.0 105.7 68.0 40.9 4.1 9.0 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.3 13.0 9.0 101.5 67.0 41.1 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.9 12.2 6.3 110.4 68.6 38.3 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 7.1 27.6 7.4 102.6 67.6 43.2 7.6 15.2 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 5.3 22.0 6.8 113.2 70.0 42.4 6.3 11.9 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 5.6 23.4 8.1 113.5 70.3 44.4 6.2 12.0 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.7 13.3 4.7 91.6 63.7 38.3 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.9 10.5 4.7 81.6 61.5 37.7 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.1 11.1 5.1 76.3 59.4 37.5 3.4 7.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.2 31.4 9.5 128.0 73.1 45.9 7.1 14.0 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.6 7.6 4.5 107.9 67.2 38.7 1.5 3.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.2 12.4 4.7 87.4 62.4 39.1 3.3 7.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.3 17.2 7.5 124.6 72.3 39.8 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 18.7 10.3 123.0 72.4 48.1 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.8 18.4 7.0 135.6 74.6 40.5 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 9.1 24.7 11.1 118.0 71.1 50.4 8.9 14.5 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.9 20.4 5.9 121.0 71.6 39.1 4.4 9.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.4 20.8 8.4 132.6 74.0 41.9 5.8 10.3 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 4.1 25.2 7.3 145.9 76.6 41.6 4.6 9.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 6.5 27.1 8.8 124.7 72.5 45.9 6.6 12.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 4.4 25.8 7.3 143.5 76.3 41.5 4.7 9.9 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.5 11.1 5.0 93.1 64.6 38.5 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 4.1 23.1 7.1 140.9 75.6 40.0 4.3 9.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.6 10.7 5.0 101.2 65.9 39.5 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.0 30.5 10.6 120.5 71.9 49.2 7.6 14.8 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.5 12.6 6.5 124.4 72.0 39.0 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------