***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 15.3 15.5 18.3 -0.9 32.3 34.3 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.0 18.0 -1.0 31.5 33.4 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 17.1 17.2 18.5 -1.0 31.0 32.9 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 12.4 12.4 15.7 -0.9 28.5 31.7 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 13.7 13.7 16.4 -0.9 28.5 31.5 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.9 13.8 -0.6 32.7 36.1 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 15.1 15.2 18.1 -1.0 31.7 33.4 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.5 13.9 -0.7 33.6 36.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.0 16.7 -0.9 29.3 32.4 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.0 15.1 14.9 -0.7 33.2 35.8 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.5 14.5 16.3 -0.9 28.1 30.9 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.0 15.2 -0.7 33.3 35.8 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 13.7 13.5 15.0 -0.9 24.9 28.7 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.8 15.8 16.4 -0.7 34.3 36.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.8 15.8 18.1 -0.9 27.9 30.8 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.0 15.7 -0.9 26.3 30.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.6 15.7 17.8 -1.0 31.9 33.7 15.7 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.4 14.1 -0.7 32.1 35.1 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 15.1 15.1 18.1 -1.0 31.3 33.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.5 12.3 -0.6 34.0 36.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.7 14.8 17.7 -0.9 29.4 32.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.9 14.9 18.2 -0.8 35.0 36.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 14.6 14.7 18.2 -1.0 30.8 32.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.3 16.4 -0.8 30.9 33.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 14.8 14.8 17.2 -1.2 27.1 29.7 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.1 14.1 -0.6 32.9 36.4 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.0 17.8 -1.0 31.3 33.3 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.7 13.7 16.5 -0.8 30.3 33.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.4 13.4 -0.7 33.4 36.0 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.3 15.5 18.4 -1.0 32.8 34.4 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------