***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.6 18.3 -0.2 47.0 47.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.6 18.4 0.3 55.3 54.8 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.1 18.9 0.2 53.4 53.3 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.0 16.2 0.2 53.3 52.9 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.1 16.3 -0.2 46.5 47.4 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.3 14.0 -0.1 48.3 48.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.0 18.6 0.3 56.1 55.2 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.2 14.1 0.0 49.7 50.0 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.5 16.5 -0.1 48.8 49.4 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.6 15.0 0.2 53.9 53.4 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.9 16.2 -0.1 46.9 47.6 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.0 15.0 -0.2 45.5 46.5 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.6 13.8 14.4 -0.5 37.8 39.7 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.2 16.5 0.3 56.3 55.9 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.6 18.2 0.1 52.6 52.7 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.7 15.4 -0.2 44.8 45.6 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.5 18.3 0.4 57.9 56.8 15.6 16.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.8 14.2 0.2 54.8 54.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 18.6 0.3 55.5 55.0 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.6 12.1 0.1 52.6 52.3 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.2 17.7 0.0 49.1 49.5 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.5 18.6 0.6 61.6 59.7 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.3 18.6 0.3 55.0 54.7 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.0 16.5 0.3 55.9 55.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.9 16.8 -0.6 37.7 40.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.2 13.8 -0.5 38.6 40.3 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.1 17.4 -0.4 41.9 43.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.4 16.8 0.2 55.4 54.5 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.4 13.6 0.2 54.6 53.9 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.0 18.7 0.3 54.8 54.4 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------