***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.8 18.1 0.3 55.5 54.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.7 18.0 0.4 58.0 56.2 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.2 18.6 0.5 58.8 57.0 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.5 16.1 0.7 63.8 59.9 12.4 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.7 15.7 0.2 53.6 52.7 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.3 14.1 0.5 61.8 59.4 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.1 18.3 0.6 60.4 58.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.8 13.7 0.2 53.8 53.0 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.9 15.6 0.1 52.5 52.0 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.9 14.3 0.2 55.1 54.0 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.3 15.4 0.2 53.7 52.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.5 14.5 0.1 51.6 51.3 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.5 13.5 0.1 52.5 51.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.7 15.7 0.3 56.4 55.2 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 16.8 16.9 17.8 0.9 68.5 63.3 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 14.6 0.3 55.8 54.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.3 17.8 0.5 59.3 57.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.3 13.3 0.3 56.1 54.6 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.6 18.1 0.4 57.3 55.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.2 11.2 0.3 56.4 55.1 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.7 17.1 0.1 52.3 51.9 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.2 17.9 0.6 61.3 58.7 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.0 18.1 0.4 56.9 55.7 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 15.6 0.3 56.7 55.2 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.0 16.4 0.1 51.3 51.0 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.2 13.6 0.2 55.0 53.9 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.9 17.2 0.2 53.8 52.9 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.4 16.6 0.9 68.2 62.8 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.3 12.9 0.3 55.8 54.7 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.2 18.4 0.5 59.2 57.2 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------