***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 30.0 28.9 28.8 -0.9 39.6 40.8 28.4 29.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 29.7 28.0 28.6 -1.4 34.5 36.0 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.2 28.8 -1.2 36.1 37.6 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 22.9 21.8 26.0 -0.7 40.3 42.3 21.3 22.5 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.4 28.7 26.8 -1.4 33.1 35.5 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 29.1 27.5 24.6 -1.0 34.5 37.7 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.4 28.0 28.7 -1.0 37.9 39.2 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.6 16.6 24.4 -1.7 28.9 31.7 16.8 17.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.3 27.7 -1.3 34.3 36.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.0 25.5 -1.3 33.8 36.0 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 27.9 28.0 27.2 -1.8 30.2 32.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.2 27.2 26.0 -1.7 29.2 32.0 27.5 28.6 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 28.2 28.1 26.7 -1.9 26.6 29.9 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 27.4 27.7 26.9 -1.5 32.7 34.4 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.6 29.7 29.3 -0.8 40.4 42.1 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 31.1 29.0 26.8 -1.6 30.3 33.2 29.2 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.0 27.2 28.0 -1.4 33.7 35.3 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.8 26.9 24.2 -1.6 31.3 33.5 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 27.2 27.5 28.6 -1.4 34.1 35.6 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 22.6 22.6 22.1 -1.7 27.9 30.9 23.0 24.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.5 28.5 -1.2 35.8 37.7 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.5 27.9 28.3 -1.1 37.0 38.6 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 27.4 27.7 28.6 -1.5 33.8 35.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 27.3 27.5 26.9 -1.5 33.1 35.0 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 30.2 28.4 27.1 -1.5 32.0 34.1 28.5 29.6 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 28.1 28.0 25.7 -1.6 29.3 32.7 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.6 28.2 27.9 -1.2 36.0 37.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.5 29.7 27.5 -0.6 41.8 43.7 29.1 30.2 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 22.1 22.1 23.3 -1.8 28.8 31.1 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.1 28.9 -1.1 37.3 38.5 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------