***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 30.8 30.3 29.9 0.9 62.5 60.2 28.2 29.4 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.6 30.1 30.0 0.8 62.2 59.7 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 30.5 29.9 30.1 0.7 59.5 57.9 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.9 23.2 27.3 0.7 60.7 58.4 21.1 22.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.6 30.0 27.6 -0.1 49.2 49.3 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.1 24.9 -0.4 43.5 44.1 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.0 30.1 1.1 65.8 62.2 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.4 25.6 -0.4 44.8 45.5 16.6 17.7 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.6 28.4 0.3 53.8 53.1 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.3 26.6 0.2 52.5 51.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.1 27.7 -0.4 44.0 45.1 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.3 26.9 -0.6 41.4 42.7 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 28.4 28.8 26.6 -1.0 35.4 37.8 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.7 29.7 28.0 0.6 59.0 57.3 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.6 30.9 29.9 0.8 61.4 59.3 29.0 30.2 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 31.1 30.0 27.2 -0.5 42.6 43.7 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.8 29.5 29.7 1.0 64.6 61.1 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.3 25.6 0.2 52.7 51.9 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 30.3 29.7 30.0 0.8 60.8 58.9 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.6 23.9 23.2 -0.3 45.9 46.3 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.8 29.3 0.4 56.1 55.0 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 30.6 30.5 29.9 1.3 69.1 64.6 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 30.4 29.7 30.0 0.7 59.3 57.8 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 29.2 29.2 28.0 0.5 56.7 55.3 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.8 27.9 0.2 52.6 52.1 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 28.2 28.9 26.6 -0.8 39.2 40.8 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.8 28.9 0.6 59.0 57.2 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.5 30.8 28.4 0.8 61.2 58.8 28.9 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 23.5 24.5 -0.1 48.8 48.7 22.3 23.5 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 30.5 30.0 30.1 0.9 62.7 60.2 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------