***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 31.5 30.7 29.7 0.9 61.1 59.5 28.4 29.8 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 30.8 30.0 29.6 0.8 59.8 58.3 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 29.9 30.2 30.1 0.9 60.9 59.3 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.4 24.3 28.3 1.4 68.5 65.0 21.0 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.7 30.9 28.1 0.7 58.8 57.8 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 29.1 29.5 25.7 0.8 60.9 59.0 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.6 30.0 29.7 1.1 62.9 60.5 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.4 26.7 0.5 56.7 56.1 16.4 17.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.1 28.3 0.8 59.5 58.5 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.1 27.3 0.9 60.6 59.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.2 28.0 0.5 56.4 55.9 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.3 28.0 0.3 54.3 54.2 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.2 26.8 0.1 51.9 52.3 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.6 29.7 27.6 0.7 58.7 57.6 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 31.7 31.8 29.8 1.7 72.3 67.9 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 31.2 31.3 27.7 0.6 57.5 56.6 29.3 30.7 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 30.1 29.4 29.3 0.9 60.7 58.6 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.9 26.4 0.8 59.5 58.3 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.6 29.7 0.7 58.6 57.4 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.6 23.8 0.4 54.7 54.4 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 30.0 30.2 29.1 0.8 59.4 58.4 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 30.6 30.0 29.4 1.0 61.6 59.2 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 29.4 29.5 29.8 0.7 58.1 57.2 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.5 27.9 0.8 60.1 58.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.2 30.3 27.8 0.7 59.1 58.0 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 30.1 30.1 27.9 0.4 56.0 55.7 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.0 28.7 0.8 60.5 59.0 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.8 31.9 29.0 1.7 71.4 67.2 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.1 25.1 0.5 55.5 55.2 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.0 29.8 0.9 60.9 59.3 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------