***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.2 28.9 0.9 61.1 59.3 26.1 27.4 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 27.5 27.9 28.8 0.9 61.0 59.1 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 27.7 28.1 29.3 0.9 61.2 59.4 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 22.3 22.1 27.5 1.4 67.2 64.3 19.6 20.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.8 27.4 0.7 59.2 58.1 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.6 24.7 0.5 56.5 56.1 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 27.2 27.8 28.9 1.1 63.7 60.8 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.8 25.8 0.4 55.2 54.8 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.2 27.6 0.8 60.2 58.9 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.2 26.4 0.8 59.9 58.4 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.3 27.2 0.5 56.0 55.5 26.4 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.5 27.1 0.3 53.2 53.4 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.4 26.0 0.1 50.8 51.7 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 27.5 27.8 26.9 0.8 59.5 58.4 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 29.7 29.6 28.7 1.5 68.7 65.5 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.3 26.8 0.5 56.0 55.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.8 27.3 28.5 1.0 62.7 60.0 25.0 26.3 27.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.1 25.6 0.8 59.5 58.1 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 27.3 27.6 29.0 0.8 60.0 58.5 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.2 22.9 22.9 0.3 53.6 53.6 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.3 28.4 0.9 60.5 59.0 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 28.3 27.9 28.6 1.1 63.7 60.9 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.7 29.0 0.8 59.4 58.2 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.3 27.6 27.2 0.9 60.7 59.1 25.4 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.0 28.3 27.1 0.8 60.1 58.8 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.1 26.8 0.2 52.7 53.2 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.9 27.9 0.9 61.0 59.3 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 29.9 29.8 28.0 1.4 67.9 64.9 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.5 24.3 0.5 56.1 55.5 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.8 29.0 0.9 61.5 59.5 25.6 27.0 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------