***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 29.3 29.5 29.3 0.4 58.0 57.6 28.1 29.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 28.9 29.0 29.2 0.3 55.3 55.1 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 29.0 29.0 29.6 0.3 55.5 55.6 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 22.4 22.9 27.3 0.7 63.2 62.1 21.1 22.1 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 29.8 29.5 27.5 0.0 49.8 50.8 28.6 29.6 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.1 25.0 -0.1 48.8 49.8 27.2 28.2 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 28.6 28.9 29.4 0.6 60.1 59.1 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 17.7 17.2 25.6 -0.3 44.9 46.3 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 29.1 29.0 28.0 0.1 52.5 53.2 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 28.9 28.8 26.4 0.1 52.4 53.0 27.8 28.7 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 29.4 28.8 27.5 -0.3 44.6 46.3 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.0 27.0 -0.4 42.1 43.9 27.4 28.4 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.9 28.8 26.5 -0.7 37.1 39.6 28.5 29.5 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 28.8 28.6 27.4 0.2 52.8 53.2 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 29.9 30.4 29.4 0.8 64.6 63.3 28.7 29.7 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 30.5 29.9 27.1 -0.3 44.9 46.5 29.1 30.2 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.3 28.3 28.9 0.4 56.7 56.0 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 27.9 27.7 25.5 0.0 50.8 51.4 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 28.6 28.6 29.3 0.2 53.9 54.0 27.4 28.3 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.1 23.4 23.0 -0.3 43.7 45.1 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 29.2 29.1 28.8 0.2 53.8 54.2 28.0 28.9 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.8 29.1 29.0 0.6 60.7 59.4 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.6 29.4 0.2 52.8 53.2 27.6 28.4 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 28.4 28.4 27.5 0.2 53.2 53.6 27.3 28.2 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 29.3 29.1 27.5 0.0 50.8 51.4 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.7 26.7 -0.4 41.7 43.6 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 28.9 28.9 28.4 0.3 55.2 55.2 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 30.0 30.5 28.2 0.8 65.1 63.7 28.7 29.7 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 23.5 23.0 24.3 -0.2 45.8 46.8 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.8 28.9 29.4 0.4 57.0 56.7 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------