***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.8 14.4 13.8 104.3 67.1 51.9 4.3 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 16.8 13.2 108.1 67.9 54.7 4.4 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.2 15.6 16.3 134.3 74.4 57.6 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.0 18.4 11.9 92.8 63.6 46.6 6.1 11.8 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.1 13.1 111.9 68.7 50.6 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.0 15.7 14.5 115.1 69.3 51.5 3.1 7.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.8 13.3 13.0 106.8 67.9 54.7 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.3 24.0 17.5 118.8 70.1 52.3 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.1 13.8 104.2 66.8 51.2 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.4 19.6 18.5 114.5 69.2 53.0 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.1 18.6 14.6 131.8 73.2 50.7 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.7 17.3 13.1 123.0 71.1 50.2 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.2 14.9 12.9 121.0 71.3 51.7 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.7 21.2 22.3 132.7 74.0 57.7 3.7 8.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.3 10.9 7.4 69.2 56.5 36.6 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.6 12.9 13.2 120.4 70.8 50.4 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.2 17.8 13.1 110.2 68.3 55.2 4.2 9.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 16.9 19.9 111.9 67.9 54.8 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.1 19.9 14.6 116.8 70.2 56.2 3.8 8.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.9 16.1 19.9 116.5 68.6 53.8 4.3 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.9 14.1 14.3 111.4 69.0 54.1 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.8 16.1 15.1 126.1 72.4 57.2 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.2 15.0 16.9 130.3 73.5 57.9 3.6 7.1 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.2 23.1 18.2 120.9 71.0 56.2 6.1 11.7 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.6 13.1 12.5 89.0 62.5 46.3 4.1 8.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.5 15.0 10.1 124.0 71.8 48.5 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.6 13.4 12.6 89.8 62.6 48.4 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.4 11.6 10.6 84.8 60.9 43.2 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.2 22.1 20.3 116.7 69.1 55.9 7.0 12.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.9 11.1 14.0 113.4 69.2 55.1 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------