***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.2 7.8 7.6 85.4 61.4 41.5 2.1 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.1 10.5 8.3 93.6 64.4 39.6 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.8 7.1 77.4 58.7 39.9 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 1.6 6.5 5.6 67.5 54.9 30.9 2.1 5.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 1.1 3.2 4.3 54.9 49.0 28.8 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 1.3 5.9 8.3 86.2 61.8 34.3 1.5 3.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.1 12.4 8.1 96.6 64.7 38.7 2.8 6.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 2.4 7.6 5.8 65.2 52.6 32.0 3.0 6.7 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 1.8 4.6 4.7 53.7 48.7 31.0 1.9 5.0 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 1.9 5.0 6.0 59.8 50.7 30.9 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 1.4 3.7 4.0 57.5 48.9 28.8 1.6 3.8 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 1.5 3.9 4.5 67.4 53.4 30.3 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 1.3 4.6 5.4 74.4 57.1 30.5 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.6 10.4 8.9 69.5 55.3 38.4 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 1.4 9.2 6.9 103.5 67.0 31.7 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 1.4 4.7 5.2 72.5 55.8 31.2 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 2.8 9.6 8.3 90.7 63.4 37.1 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 2.6 7.3 7.8 65.7 52.8 34.4 2.7 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.7 9.6 8.4 93.3 64.3 40.8 2.4 5.6 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.5 8.6 75.4 55.9 39.7 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.8 5.0 56.9 50.4 32.4 1.9 4.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.9 11.2 8.8 89.9 63.5 37.4 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.8 8.3 89.7 62.8 41.3 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.4 7.6 7.3 64.1 52.8 35.9 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.8 5.6 7.5 80.4 60.4 38.0 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 1.2 4.0 4.4 78.9 58.2 30.2 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.6 11.3 8.5 89.7 63.1 41.7 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 1.3 5.2 6.1 80.0 59.6 31.8 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 3.1 7.8 8.5 68.2 53.2 36.3 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.7 8.2 93.0 64.1 41.4 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------