***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.8 12.9 7.7 92.4 63.6 41.3 4.2 8.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.8 15.0 8.5 102.9 66.9 45.7 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.9 14.0 7.4 85.4 61.2 41.4 3.6 8.8 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.0 12.6 6.6 78.2 59.5 39.1 4.1 8.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.9 12.9 6.6 80.7 59.7 39.9 4.1 9.0 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.0 11.3 7.9 89.4 63.1 39.1 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.3 11.0 8.3 98.1 65.4 42.6 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.3 20.8 7.7 79.1 58.9 41.5 7.6 15.2 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 5.9 15.6 7.0 79.0 58.9 41.0 6.3 11.9 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.8 16.2 8.3 79.6 58.8 41.7 6.2 12.0 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.6 5.4 74.8 56.8 39.2 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.1 8.8 5.3 73.2 56.5 38.6 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 10.8 5.9 77.4 58.8 39.4 3.4 7.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.9 24.5 12.5 100.1 65.8 46.3 7.1 14.0 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.5 5.3 5.1 74.8 58.8 34.6 1.5 3.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.2 10.6 5.6 78.3 58.5 39.2 3.3 7.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.8 14.5 8.9 101.8 66.7 45.1 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.9 13.5 11.3 90.1 62.2 46.3 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.3 14.5 8.7 103.5 67.1 45.8 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.8 20.9 12.7 97.8 64.4 48.5 8.9 14.5 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.2 13.3 6.9 79.4 59.3 40.2 4.4 9.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.5 16.8 9.5 101.1 66.8 45.6 5.8 10.3 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.7 18.6 9.4 108.3 68.2 46.2 4.6 9.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.9 19.0 9.8 88.0 61.7 44.9 6.6 12.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.0 15.5 7.8 87.2 62.2 40.4 4.7 9.9 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.0 10.2 5.6 85.6 62.2 41.6 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.3 15.3 8.2 93.5 64.0 41.2 4.3 9.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.4 5.9 78.2 59.5 37.4 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.6 24.0 12.7 97.4 64.4 48.3 7.6 14.8 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.9 10.3 8.4 101.1 66.1 44.6 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------