***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 40.7 35.7 34.6 80.9 52.4 46.5 19.9 33.3 51.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 48.3 45.4 34.9 85.6 54.7 48.2 28.3 41.4 56.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 48.8 46.8 37.0 86.8 55.1 48.9 27.9 42.1 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 24.0 39.5 30.6 74.6 49.3 42.0 23.8 40.1 61.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 38.0 31.4 30.3 78.8 51.1 43.9 19.6 30.8 44.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 25.2 42.2 38.0 88.8 54.5 45.0 25.9 38.4 53.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 43.9 40.7 34.1 84.7 54.3 48.1 24.8 37.2 52.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 42.2 64.8 37.7 86.1 52.7 45.1 44.0 61.6 81.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 49.0 41.2 32.6 78.3 50.4 43.8 27.0 40.9 57.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 59.0 53.8 40.0 83.6 51.8 44.4 40.1 52.3 65.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 25.1 39.0 29.9 84.4 53.1 44.7 25.3 36.5 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.0 34.5 28.8 86.2 53.7 45.6 21.6 32.0 44.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 18.5 33.9 29.7 86.0 53.8 44.9 19.0 31.0 46.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 67.1 63.0 50.9 91.0 55.4 48.2 38.9 56.3 77.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 15.1 26.7 24.4 69.5 49.1 39.5 14.9 27.4 43.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 21.2 34.8 29.9 85.7 53.6 45.1 21.8 32.3 45.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 28.8 43.4 35.2 85.3 53.9 47.1 29.5 40.7 53.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 51.3 46.5 47.5 86.5 52.2 46.2 32.9 44.9 58.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 48.2 46.6 37.1 89.0 56.1 49.5 26.4 40.6 58.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 35.1 52.6 49.9 92.3 54.1 47.9 35.5 48.9 64.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 49.6 42.7 32.0 76.5 50.2 44.1 29.3 42.4 57.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 50.7 49.2 39.0 90.5 56.4 49.4 34.0 44.9 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 44.7 44.3 40.1 92.9 57.4 50.4 22.7 36.9 54.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 62.3 56.7 42.6 84.0 52.0 46.3 39.0 54.7 72.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 23.9 35.9 34.4 74.5 48.3 42.4 23.7 37.4 54.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 16.4 32.2 25.4 87.7 54.9 46.4 17.4 28.4 42.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 51.5 41.6 35.4 76.8 49.7 44.5 26.3 42.0 61.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 18.0 29.5 28.5 74.7 50.3 42.1 18.2 29.5 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 69.0 64.2 51.4 90.0 53.5 47.4 45.2 60.9 78.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 34.7 33.4 35.7 86.8 55.3 49.2 18.2 29.3 43.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------