***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 16.3 15.9 18.7 -0.3 43.4 43.6 15.5 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 16.0 15.9 18.8 0.0 49.8 49.8 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 18.3 17.7 18.5 -0.3 42.2 42.6 17.1 18.1 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 13.6 13.2 16.6 -0.2 46.0 46.2 12.4 13.4 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 14.9 14.5 16.8 -0.2 43.9 44.3 14.0 14.7 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 13.7 13.3 14.9 -0.2 43.5 43.9 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 16.2 15.9 18.8 -0.2 46.4 46.4 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.5 8.7 14.5 -0.5 39.0 39.6 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 16.0 15.6 17.3 -0.3 43.1 43.5 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 16.0 15.5 15.4 -0.2 43.8 44.2 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 15.6 15.2 16.4 -0.3 43.2 43.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 13.8 13.2 15.3 -0.5 38.4 39.1 13.0 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.9 14.4 15.4 -0.3 41.3 41.9 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 16.6 16.4 17.1 -0.1 48.2 48.4 15.7 16.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.1 17.6 -0.7 32.8 33.7 16.1 16.9 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 16.4 15.9 16.2 -0.2 42.8 43.3 15.4 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 16.6 17.0 18.7 0.4 59.3 58.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.0 14.4 -0.2 44.3 44.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 16.1 15.9 18.7 0.0 48.8 48.8 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 10.4 9.9 12.5 -0.3 42.7 43.3 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 15.8 15.3 18.2 -0.4 41.2 41.6 14.9 15.6 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 95 5 100 15.6 15.6 18.7 0.1 51.5 51.5 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 15.6 15.4 18.6 -0.1 47.9 48.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 16.3 15.9 16.7 -0.2 44.9 45.2 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 16.1 15.6 17.5 -0.3 43.8 44.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 13.8 14.0 14.4 -0.8 28.8 29.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 16.2 15.8 18.1 -0.2 45.9 46.0 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 15.0 14.2 17.1 -0.4 38.3 39.0 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 13.4 12.8 13.9 -0.2 43.8 44.4 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 16.4 15.9 18.9 -0.3 43.7 43.9 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------