***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.3 18.3 -0.3 43.7 44.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.2 18.6 -0.1 47.3 47.6 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.2 17.8 18.2 -0.3 44.4 45.2 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.1 16.2 -0.6 37.1 39.0 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.7 16.0 -0.5 39.8 41.4 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.4 12.9 14.7 -0.3 42.3 43.6 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.9 15.6 18.6 -0.1 47.8 48.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.6 14.3 -0.4 40.6 42.3 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.9 16.2 -0.5 40.1 41.5 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.5 14.9 14.8 -0.4 41.3 42.7 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.5 15.7 -0.4 41.9 43.2 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.6 15.2 -0.5 37.9 39.9 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.6 14.6 -0.6 35.6 37.5 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.7 16.6 -0.1 47.0 47.3 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.5 15.7 16.6 -0.8 34.0 36.1 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.4 15.4 -0.5 38.3 40.0 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.3 18.5 0.3 55.7 55.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.1 14.2 -0.3 43.6 44.6 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.5 18.5 -0.1 47.4 47.6 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.1 12.7 -0.3 42.6 43.9 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.7 17.3 -0.5 40.1 41.4 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.1 18.4 0.2 54.2 53.6 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.1 14.8 18.1 -0.2 46.7 47.0 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.4 16.3 -0.2 45.8 46.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.0 16.6 -0.3 42.5 43.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 13.8 13.7 14.4 -1.0 28.8 31.0 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.4 17.5 -0.2 45.6 46.2 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.1 13.3 16.4 -0.7 34.4 36.6 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.0 13.7 -0.2 45.5 46.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.6 18.6 -0.2 45.1 45.7 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------