***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.3 17.3 -0.2 45.8 47.8 14.6 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.0 17.4 -0.1 47.6 48.9 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.3 17.2 -0.3 44.2 46.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 12.5 15.1 -0.6 36.1 40.4 12.3 13.5 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.9 15.0 -0.4 40.4 44.0 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.5 13.9 -0.2 45.6 48.5 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.3 17.4 -0.1 48.6 49.6 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.3 13.5 -0.3 43.6 46.5 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.3 15.2 -0.4 41.0 44.7 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.3 13.9 -0.3 42.7 46.0 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.8 14.8 -0.3 43.9 46.8 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.0 14.4 -0.3 42.1 45.3 11.6 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.0 13.9 -0.4 41.3 44.9 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.1 15.4 -0.2 44.6 46.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 14.7 14.8 15.7 -0.8 32.0 37.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.7 14.6 -0.4 41.1 44.6 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.1 17.2 0.3 56.4 55.9 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.7 13.2 -0.2 44.5 47.1 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.1 17.3 -0.2 46.7 48.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.9 11.9 -0.2 46.3 48.0 8.4 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 13.5 14.0 16.3 -0.4 40.6 44.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.7 17.0 0.2 53.6 53.6 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.4 16.9 -0.2 44.4 46.6 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.7 15.2 -0.2 44.7 47.2 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.5 15.7 -0.3 43.4 46.0 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.3 14.0 -0.6 35.7 40.0 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.3 16.5 -0.1 47.6 49.1 14.3 15.5 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 12.6 12.7 15.5 -0.7 33.0 38.0 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.7 12.8 -0.2 46.2 48.0 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.4 17.5 -0.2 45.7 47.4 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------