***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.6 15.9 -0.6 37.3 40.2 13.4 14.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.4 16.1 -0.4 40.1 42.1 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.3 15.9 -0.6 35.9 39.6 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 9.9 10.1 13.8 -1.0 26.5 33.1 10.5 11.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.7 13.7 -0.9 29.0 35.3 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.4 12.7 -0.5 37.6 41.9 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.0 13.7 16.2 -0.4 40.9 43.0 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.2 6.5 12.2 -0.6 34.3 39.8 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 12.8 13.1 13.9 -0.8 31.8 37.2 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 12.8 13.1 12.5 -0.7 33.7 39.4 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 12.4 12.6 13.5 -0.8 30.8 37.5 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 10.9 11.0 13.1 -0.8 31.0 37.3 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 11.9 12.1 12.7 -0.8 29.6 36.2 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 13.3 13.9 14.1 -0.5 37.2 41.5 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 13.9 14.0 14.5 -1.0 26.8 33.0 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 13.3 13.4 13.3 -0.8 29.4 36.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.4 15.9 -0.1 46.6 46.9 13.7 14.5 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.7 11.9 -0.5 35.9 41.1 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 13.1 13.7 16.0 -0.5 39.1 41.5 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.0 10.6 -0.5 37.1 41.6 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.8 15.0 -0.8 32.2 37.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.3 15.8 -0.2 44.5 45.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 12.5 13.0 15.7 -0.5 37.8 40.9 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.4 13.9 -0.5 36.1 40.8 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 12.8 13.1 14.3 -0.7 34.1 38.0 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 12.0 12.0 12.7 -1.0 25.7 31.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 12.6 13.3 15.2 -0.5 38.2 41.0 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 11.5 11.5 14.2 -1.1 25.8 32.5 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.2 10.7 11.5 -0.5 36.6 41.5 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.7 16.2 -0.5 38.2 40.9 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------