***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 27.6 27.6 28.1 -1.5 28.5 30.6 28.0 29.3 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 27.2 27.4 28.1 -1.5 30.4 32.0 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 26.9 26.9 27.8 -1.8 25.5 27.5 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 19.7 19.7 25.6 -2.2 20.1 21.9 20.9 22.2 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 27.1 27.1 26.0 -2.2 20.4 22.5 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 25.9 25.9 23.8 -2.0 20.6 22.4 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.3 27.4 28.3 -1.2 33.7 35.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 15.4 15.1 23.5 -2.7 15.6 17.7 16.5 17.6 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 27.0 26.9 26.8 -2.1 22.3 24.5 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 26.5 26.4 24.6 -2.4 18.9 21.1 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 26.5 26.5 25.5 -2.4 18.6 20.7 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 25.8 25.4 24.6 -2.7 15.1 17.1 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 26.8 26.7 24.9 -2.5 17.5 19.1 28.2 29.5 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 26.7 26.7 25.9 -1.9 24.7 26.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 27.8 27.9 27.5 -2.0 21.0 22.9 28.8 29.9 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 27.5 27.4 25.5 -2.3 18.4 20.3 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.9 27.2 28.0 -1.0 36.2 37.3 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 25.7 25.6 23.5 -2.4 19.5 21.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 26.6 26.8 27.9 -1.7 28.2 29.9 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 21.5 21.4 21.5 -2.6 17.3 19.5 22.7 23.9 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 27.1 27.1 27.6 -2.0 23.5 25.8 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 27.1 27.4 27.7 -1.4 32.9 34.1 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 26.8 26.9 27.5 -1.8 26.1 28.1 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 26.4 26.3 25.7 -2.1 22.7 24.9 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 27.7 27.7 26.9 -1.6 27.5 29.6 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 26.6 26.1 24.2 -2.9 13.0 14.5 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.4 27.4 27.6 -1.3 30.7 32.8 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 27.4 27.3 26.3 -2.3 18.1 20.1 28.6 29.8 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 21.1 20.9 22.7 -2.4 19.3 21.6 22.1 23.3 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 27.0 27.1 28.1 -1.6 28.7 30.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------