***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 30.1 28.7 28.6 -0.8 37.8 40.2 28.3 29.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.9 28.5 28.6 -0.8 38.8 41.0 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.8 28.4 28.5 -0.9 36.3 39.1 28.2 29.4 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 20.8 20.9 26.8 -1.6 28.1 31.1 21.3 22.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.6 28.6 26.8 -1.4 30.4 33.7 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.1 24.7 -1.4 29.7 32.9 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.5 28.7 -0.5 42.0 43.7 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.4 16.5 25.1 -1.3 32.3 35.3 16.6 17.8 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.1 27.1 -1.2 32.9 36.0 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 29.7 28.0 25.7 -1.2 33.5 36.4 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.2 26.3 -1.3 31.1 34.3 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 27.3 27.4 26.0 -1.5 29.4 32.8 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 28.2 28.1 25.4 -1.8 25.9 29.5 28.7 30.1 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 29.5 28.4 26.8 -0.7 39.9 42.5 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 28.7 28.7 27.2 -1.6 27.5 30.1 29.1 30.3 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 29.0 29.0 26.0 -1.6 28.0 31.4 29.4 30.7 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.2 28.6 -0.3 45.3 46.4 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.6 27.2 25.1 -1.0 36.7 39.5 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.1 28.5 -0.9 37.6 40.1 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.8 23.1 23.1 -1.1 35.0 37.7 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.2 27.9 -1.2 33.3 36.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.6 28.7 28.4 -0.4 43.9 45.3 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.2 28.2 -0.8 37.9 40.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.2 27.9 26.7 -0.8 38.2 41.0 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.2 28.7 27.2 -1.0 35.6 38.1 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 27.7 27.5 25.4 -2.1 21.9 25.9 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.8 28.6 28.0 -0.7 39.8 41.9 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 28.5 28.5 26.9 -1.7 26.1 29.1 29.0 30.2 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.1 22.7 24.2 -0.9 37.9 40.4 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.7 28.3 28.7 -0.9 37.6 40.0 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------