***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 28.0 28.4 27.3 -1.0 34.5 38.3 28.3 29.7 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.6 28.1 27.4 -1.0 36.2 39.8 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.6 28.0 27.4 -1.1 34.7 38.4 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 20.4 20.7 25.8 -1.5 28.5 32.5 21.1 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 28.1 28.5 25.8 -1.3 32.4 36.1 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.2 27.5 24.3 -0.8 37.4 40.5 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.3 27.8 27.3 -0.8 37.9 41.2 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.0 24.6 -0.8 39.4 41.8 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 27.6 28.0 26.1 -1.1 34.3 37.9 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.5 28.1 25.0 -0.9 37.4 40.3 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 27.9 28.4 25.6 -1.0 35.5 38.8 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.4 27.8 25.6 -0.9 37.2 40.2 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 30.6 28.6 25.1 -1.1 33.9 37.6 28.5 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.5 28.2 25.8 -0.7 40.2 42.9 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 27.6 27.8 26.2 -1.6 26.6 30.5 28.4 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 28.9 29.2 25.5 -1.2 33.5 37.2 29.2 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.9 27.7 27.2 -0.6 41.0 43.7 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.7 27.3 24.3 -0.7 40.4 42.7 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.3 27.6 27.4 -1.0 36.1 39.7 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.8 23.6 22.6 -0.5 43.0 44.7 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.6 27.9 26.8 -1.2 33.0 36.9 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.2 27.2 -0.6 41.1 43.7 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.3 27.8 27.2 -0.9 37.3 40.7 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 27.0 27.7 25.7 -0.8 38.8 41.7 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.5 28.0 25.9 -1.2 33.0 36.8 28.0 29.5 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 27.9 28.0 25.1 -1.3 31.6 35.6 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 27.3 27.8 26.6 -0.9 35.9 39.4 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 27.9 28.1 26.0 -1.6 27.5 31.5 28.6 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.0 23.5 -0.5 42.7 44.6 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.5 27.7 27.5 -1.0 35.1 38.8 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------