***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 25.0 25.6 26.4 -1.0 35.1 38.0 25.4 26.9 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.7 25.7 26.7 -0.7 39.2 41.2 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 24.8 25.5 26.6 -0.9 36.8 39.2 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 18.2 18.4 24.7 -1.5 27.7 31.7 18.9 20.3 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 25.5 26.0 24.7 -1.3 31.7 35.3 26.1 27.6 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 24.7 25.4 23.1 -0.9 34.8 38.1 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 24.5 25.4 26.6 -0.7 39.4 41.4 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.8 23.3 -1.0 35.3 38.8 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 25.0 25.5 25.0 -1.1 34.3 37.5 25.4 26.9 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 25.0 25.7 23.8 -1.0 35.7 38.8 25.5 26.9 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 25.3 25.8 24.4 -1.1 33.4 37.1 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 24.7 25.3 24.3 -1.1 33.4 37.5 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 25.5 26.0 23.9 -1.3 31.0 35.6 26.2 27.7 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 24.5 25.8 25.0 -0.5 42.4 44.0 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 25.6 25.8 25.1 -1.7 25.4 29.6 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 26.1 26.7 24.3 -1.3 31.2 35.5 26.8 28.3 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 24.1 25.2 26.5 -0.5 42.6 44.0 24.4 25.8 27.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 24.1 25.0 23.2 -0.8 39.2 41.6 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 24.5 25.5 26.8 -0.7 39.9 41.7 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.1 21.3 -0.8 37.8 40.8 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 25.0 25.5 25.8 -1.1 33.4 36.7 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 27.0 25.7 26.5 -0.5 43.1 44.3 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 24.6 25.7 26.6 -0.6 41.2 42.8 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 24.4 25.4 24.8 -0.7 40.0 42.1 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 25.0 25.5 24.9 -1.2 32.7 36.0 25.6 27.0 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 25.3 25.6 23.9 -1.4 28.0 33.6 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 24.7 25.4 25.7 -0.9 36.0 38.8 25.2 26.6 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 25.6 25.9 24.9 -1.6 26.6 30.9 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.6 22.3 -0.7 40.4 42.7 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 24.6 25.5 26.8 -0.8 37.8 40.0 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------