***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 27.3 27.4 27.6 -1.1 26.4 29.8 27.9 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 27.3 27.4 27.7 -1.0 29.8 32.5 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 27.1 27.2 27.6 -1.2 25.2 28.6 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 20.0 19.7 25.7 -1.7 16.9 20.3 20.9 21.9 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 27.7 27.4 25.8 -1.5 19.4 22.9 28.3 29.3 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 26.4 26.3 24.0 -1.3 21.9 25.9 27.0 28.0 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 27.0 27.3 27.7 -0.8 32.7 35.2 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 15.8 15.6 24.1 -1.4 20.8 24.4 16.4 17.3 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 27.2 27.0 26.2 -1.4 22.0 25.5 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 26.9 26.8 24.8 -1.4 22.1 25.6 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 27.3 27.0 25.4 -1.5 20.2 23.9 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 26.6 26.2 25.1 -1.6 18.6 22.6 27.2 28.2 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 27.5 27.1 24.8 -1.7 17.3 21.3 28.3 29.3 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 26.9 27.1 25.9 -1.0 29.0 31.9 27.3 28.3 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 27.7 27.4 26.5 -1.7 16.7 20.0 28.5 29.5 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 28.2 27.8 25.3 -1.6 18.3 22.2 28.9 30.0 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.7 27.1 27.6 -0.6 36.9 38.7 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 26.0 26.1 24.0 -1.2 24.8 28.1 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 26.8 26.9 27.7 -1.1 28.6 31.4 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 22.0 22.0 22.1 -1.2 23.8 27.2 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 27.2 27.0 27.0 -1.4 21.7 25.4 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 27.1 27.5 27.5 -0.7 35.1 37.0 27.4 28.3 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 27.0 27.1 27.4 -1.0 28.3 31.3 27.4 28.2 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 26.6 26.7 25.8 -1.1 26.4 29.7 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 27.3 27.3 26.2 -1.2 24.0 27.5 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 27.1 26.4 24.7 -1.9 12.8 16.7 28.0 29.0 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 27.1 27.3 27.0 -1.0 28.6 31.8 27.5 28.4 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 27.6 27.2 26.0 -1.8 15.5 18.9 28.5 29.5 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 21.5 21.5 23.2 -1.1 26.0 29.4 22.0 23.0 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 27.0 27.1 27.8 -1.1 27.9 30.9 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------