***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.8 23.2 24.6 176.9 81.7 71.6 4.3 8.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 17.5 24.7 25.2 179.1 82.2 70.8 4.2 8.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 16.7 26.8 29.0 220.9 86.9 77.0 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 27.4 47.4 27.2 238.2 88.9 79.6 6.4 12.5 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 14.1 22.8 29.2 230.6 88.3 79.1 3.8 6.8 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 25.1 52.9 26.5 274.7 92.2 82.8 4.4 9.8 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.0 17.8 23.3 165.9 80.2 67.9 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 27.6 49.4 34.9 260.2 90.9 83.1 6.5 12.3 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 20.2 35.9 34.2 261.2 90.8 84.0 4.4 8.7 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 25.0 46.2 37.4 259.9 90.8 83.2 5.2 10.6 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 20.8 34.8 26.9 242.2 89.2 80.5 5.1 9.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 20.4 36.6 26.5 254.1 90.3 81.7 4.4 8.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 18.9 40.4 26.3 279.4 92.7 83.7 3.3 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 20.9 41.8 38.9 246.9 90.5 80.0 4.0 8.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 20.1 29.0 20.1 187.4 82.3 67.9 4.6 9.3 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 15.6 29.8 26.3 273.7 92.0 82.3 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 18.8 26.8 25.1 170.8 80.9 68.2 4.1 8.6 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 20.7 34.6 39.3 249.8 90.3 83.3 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 19.6 31.9 27.8 202.0 85.1 73.9 3.7 8.0 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 20.7 33.9 35.0 229.0 88.9 81.6 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 18.5 29.4 28.8 215.7 86.1 77.5 3.8 8.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 14.5 21.3 27.9 188.4 83.4 70.6 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 15.5 28.0 31.3 233.6 88.5 77.9 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 26.7 47.0 36.0 245.6 90.1 81.6 6.7 12.4 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 16.4 23.0 24.2 172.4 81.3 69.6 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 17.9 35.7 23.0 261.7 91.2 82.2 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.5 21.8 24.6 169.5 80.8 70.3 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 19.8 36.7 26.0 250.9 89.9 79.2 4.1 8.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 26.7 43.4 38.2 238.3 89.5 82.2 7.4 12.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 11.9 16.6 24.6 179.0 82.1 71.1 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------