***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.7 11.2 8.5 103.9 67.4 40.7 2.6 5.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.5 8.3 8.0 88.8 61.8 40.3 2.3 5.2 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.0 12.6 8.6 102.4 66.4 42.4 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.3 10.4 8.8 116.7 70.8 48.0 1.9 4.5 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 1.9 7.2 9.6 117.9 71.0 46.7 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.7 12.8 12.1 135.3 74.8 49.7 2.6 5.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.3 6.1 6.8 69.5 54.3 36.1 2.2 5.0 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.7 14.2 11.3 102.5 66.8 47.2 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.5 10.4 12.1 132.3 74.1 53.0 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.4 13.0 110.2 68.8 49.2 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.0 8.3 111.1 69.2 47.6 2.3 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.2 7.4 7.6 102.4 66.9 44.5 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.2 9.2 9.3 129.0 73.3 51.7 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.1 13.6 11.2 97.0 65.8 43.9 5.2 8.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.7 6.8 5.6 82.6 60.8 36.5 1.9 4.4 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.0 8.6 8.8 130.6 73.7 52.8 1.5 3.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.8 7.6 76.8 57.7 37.1 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.7 10.4 16.0 109.9 69.0 52.9 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.1 10.8 8.6 102.8 66.4 42.8 2.9 6.1 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.3 13.2 15.6 105.3 67.4 53.7 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.7 13.5 9.6 127.6 73.2 45.7 2.6 5.6 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.7 9.1 8.8 98.0 64.8 39.1 2.7 5.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.9 9.5 8.9 106.3 67.5 42.9 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.8 15.1 13.3 113.2 69.9 50.7 4.2 8.1 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.6 10.7 9.7 111.4 69.3 43.5 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.1 9.4 5.6 110.9 68.9 37.4 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.2 13.8 10.0 106.8 67.7 43.6 2.8 6.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.0 8.3 7.2 102.6 66.7 42.0 2.0 4.5 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.8 16.1 108.8 68.5 53.8 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.3 8.5 7.7 86.5 61.1 37.6 2.3 5.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------