***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.2 8.0 8.1 97.9 65.8 44.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.7 7.8 80.0 59.2 41.7 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.3 8.9 107.4 67.9 43.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.4 7.4 81.2 62.5 44.6 2.2 5.0 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.7 8.0 92.0 65.3 44.2 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.1 7.4 11.1 101.1 66.6 45.5 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.6 8.5 7.3 74.3 57.3 38.0 2.4 6.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.7 13.4 9.6 99.5 66.3 48.2 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.8 12.4 9.8 109.9 69.7 48.5 2.2 5.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.9 11.1 108.2 68.5 50.0 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.1 8.0 7.2 97.6 66.5 45.0 1.8 4.1 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.0 6.2 6.7 91.5 64.7 44.6 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.1 6.6 7.5 90.2 64.1 44.5 1.8 4.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.8 15.5 10.6 99.9 65.2 45.5 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.7 5.2 5.3 60.9 56.4 35.1 1.7 4.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.2 7.2 6.9 90.0 64.3 44.1 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.7 6.9 70.6 56.1 40.0 2.8 6.2 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 14.2 14.2 112.2 69.1 53.3 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.2 7.9 87.7 61.8 42.6 2.3 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.9 12.6 94.7 64.1 51.0 1.8 4.8 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.2 9.7 8.0 100.6 66.9 43.6 2.2 4.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.3 6.8 74.7 57.1 39.7 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.5 10.5 8.1 96.0 64.5 42.8 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.2 12.0 12.7 117.4 70.3 51.2 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.3 9.2 94.4 64.9 45.7 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 1.5 4.4 4.6 71.6 56.7 31.7 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.4 9.7 100.6 66.5 47.4 3.6 6.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.7 6.4 73.0 60.1 40.0 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 14.7 14.3 110.9 68.8 54.0 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.7 7.6 8.1 88.2 61.9 40.3 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------