***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.3 16.8 5.8 101.2 65.7 42.1 5.5 10.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.9 5.7 78.9 59.0 40.9 3.9 8.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.3 15.3 5.3 80.0 58.9 40.5 4.8 10.7 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.2 17.0 7.0 94.8 64.8 42.6 4.9 10.2 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.7 15.1 6.8 86.0 61.5 40.9 4.7 9.9 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.2 12.8 9.4 86.7 62.5 44.0 4.1 8.3 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.4 5.6 79.9 59.8 40.8 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 9.6 18.0 6.8 61.7 51.3 38.1 9.4 17.3 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 5.7 15.3 6.5 78.0 58.3 41.2 6.0 11.6 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.1 14.8 7.5 67.9 54.3 40.7 6.6 12.9 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 5.0 14.0 6.3 83.3 60.2 39.8 5.5 10.2 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.1 5.2 66.9 53.7 35.9 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.0 11.5 6.5 77.4 59.1 40.6 3.5 7.9 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.6 15.5 7.2 66.3 54.8 40.0 6.5 13.1 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.6 6.1 5.2 80.8 60.1 36.0 1.6 3.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.3 13.9 7.1 94.1 64.3 42.0 3.3 7.8 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.5 6.2 83.5 60.8 41.9 4.6 8.4 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.2 12.0 9.1 67.4 54.2 42.1 6.2 10.8 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.7 11.3 5.3 74.9 57.5 39.6 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.3 16.6 9.3 63.6 52.5 42.0 10.1 15.6 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.9 15.4 5.6 85.7 60.8 40.2 5.1 10.5 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.3 12.1 5.8 73.5 57.9 41.2 5.1 9.4 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 5.4 12.7 4.9 66.7 54.3 36.4 5.8 11.0 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.4 17.2 7.6 72.5 56.5 42.4 7.3 13.8 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.2 16.3 6.4 88.5 62.1 41.1 4.7 10.4 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.9 6.8 3.6 53.7 48.7 32.4 3.3 7.2 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.3 16.8 6.6 94.0 63.6 42.3 5.1 10.4 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.7 10.4 6.8 92.5 64.2 39.9 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.9 19.0 9.4 65.5 53.7 42.2 9.3 17.0 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.8 10.1 5.4 80.1 59.0 40.0 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------